Charles H. Bronson, Commissioner    -    James R. Karels, Director

Fire Weather Outlook: January- March, 2010

Updated January 4, 2010

CURRENT CONDITIONS

The El Niño condition that has been in place has strengthened since the summer. Almost weekly frontal passages have brought increased chances of rain followed by cooler and drier air. These showers have reduced or eliminated any rainfall deficits that existed. Cooler temperatures have brought the first freeze warnings into the state helping to cure the fine fuels in the panhandle and northern tier of counties. There are no drought conditions currently in the state at this time.

LONG-RANGE OUTLOOK

The current El Niño condition is expected to persist at a minimum and may strengthen over the next three months. This will result in above normal chance for precipitation for the next three months and below or near normal temperatures. If the El Niño strengthens we can expect wet conditions to persist through the Spring of 2010.

SUMMARY

Drought conditions are not present as we enter the New Year. The strength of the current El Niño may reduce burn opportunities during the dormant season because of increased rainfall and if it continues into the late spring possibly next year’s growing season burn period. Freeze and frost conditions followed by periods of dry air may result in red flag conditions and fire weather watches.
The next seasonal outlook will be the first week in April, 2010. Should there be any questions, please contact luchss@doacs.state.fl.us
Division of Forestry
Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services
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