Fire Weather Outlook: July- September, 2009
Updated July 1, 2009
CURRENT CONDITIONS
Fire season came to an abrupt halt in May with the onset of daily rainfall. Flooding was a concern in many areas of the eastern and central Peninsula. Conditions have been fluctuating between wet and dry periods. Currently, the Panhandle is on the dry side after seeing high temperatures and several weeks without rain. Central and south Florida are reasonably wet but we have still seen some significant fires in many areas. There are no long-term drought conditions anywhere in the state at this time.
LONG-RANGE OUTLOOK
Neutral ENSO conditions persisted across the Pacific Ocean in May. Sea surface temperatures are increasing across the ocean and ENSO indices are climbing weekly. Many climate models are predicting the onset of El Niño conditions during the summer into the fall of 2009. The hurricane season is expected to be near-normal with 9-14 named storms possible. If El Niño develops, activity may be even lower than forecast.
SUMMARY
Summertime thunderstorm activity and potential tropical storm activity through the summer will continue to reduce the threat of wildfires. A normal tropical storm season and developing El Niño also suggests a low risk of above normal wildfire activity through the fall as well.
The next seasonal outlook will be the first week in October, 2009. Should there be any questions, please contact Deborah Hanley at
hanleyd@doacs.state.fl.us.
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