Fire Weather Outlook:
April- June 2008
Updated April 2, 2008
Current Conditions Around Florida:
We are currently under the influence of strong La Niña conditions. Fortunately, we observed more rainfall than is normally associated with La Niña conditions due to the occurrence of other atmospheric oscillations. The Panhandle has been experiencing significant rain events on a regular basis and is close to normal rain amounts for the year. Significant rainfall deficits are continuing across central and southern areas of the state. Areas south of Interstate 4 are seeing KBDI values in the 400-500 range. These conditions are likely to worsen as dry conditions persist through the spring.
Long-range Outlook:
The outlook for the next three months is for continuation of the La Niña pattern although it is expected to weaken through the spring and may persist until the fall. Climate outlooks are still indicating dry conditions associated with La Niña to continue through the spring months but moderate as we approach summer. The La Niña event may result in above normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic this summer and fall which may help mitigate the dry conditions across the state.
Summary:
The wet pattern we have experienced so far this year should come to an end as the strong La Niña conditions affect the state. Rainfall is expected to be below normal in April and closer to normal in May and June. Dry fuels already present could ignite if a source of ignition were to be present (e.g. lightning, arson, prescribed fires). Even a week or two with little rainfall could make some of the wetter areas more susceptible to fire starts as well. Fire activity could be above normal if the dry conditions persist through the spring into June.
The next forecast will be the first week in June, 2008. Should there be any questions, please contact Deborah Hanley at
hanleyd@doacs.state.fl.us. |
